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·5 min read·Adam Roozen

Inference as an Asset Class

OpenRouter made model access a spot market. Venice's DIEM is a perpetual claim on $1 a day of compute. Once something has a price and a stream, somebody lends against it.

OpenRouter did something simple that changed how inference gets priced. It lists every model on one page, with cost per million tokens sitting next to every competitor.

Venice Uncensored runs $0.20 in and $0.90 out per million there. Every competing model's price sits on the same screen.

That's a spot market. Fungible units, visible prices, low switching cost.

Providers have to justify a premium now. They used to assume it.

Building the Instrument

Let's build it first and name it after.

One DIEM entitles the holder to $1 per day of API credit. Not a dollar of value, a dollar of usage, at whatever Venice charges that day. The term is forever – there's no maturity on it. To mint one you stake VVV, which locks up while you keep 80% of the normal staking yield.

Say you hold ten of them. Every morning you wake up with $10 of inference sitting there, whether you use it or not.

Now say I'm running an agent product and I burn about $10 a day on inference. I could buy your ten DIEM and stop paying Venice cash forever. Or I could keep paying cash and skip the upfront.

Which of us comes out ahead depends on one thing – what the price of inference does next.

When the Price Moves

Inference gets more expensive. My cash bill climbs. Your ten DIEM still deliver their $10 of usage a day, so what you're holding just got more useful, and I'd have paid you more to take it off your hands.

Inference gets cheaper, which is what it's been doing for three years. My cash bill falls. Your ten DIEM still deliver their $10 a day, but that $10 now buys me something I could have picked up cheaply anyway.

So: a fixed stream of a real commodity, paid out with no maturity date, priced against what the buyer would otherwise spend. Finance has had that instrument for 300 years and calls it a perpetual bond. The new part is that the coupon is compute.

Here's the part I keep chewing on. I'm short the price of inference just by running my business. You're long it by holding DIEM. Two parties, opposite exposure, and a reason to trade with each other.

That's what a market needs before it can be anything more than speculation. Venice processes over a million daily inference requests across OpenRouter, Warden, Brave Leo, Fleek, Cursor and VS Code, so there's real volume underneath the idea.

Where Does This Go?

An instrument with a predictable stream and an observable price is collateral. That's the whole test.

Lending against it. Borrowing to buy it. Stripping the stream from the principal.

All mechanical once the price is legible, and DeFi already has the plumbing for every one of them. Nobody has to invent much here.

Issuer Risk

The stream is only worth what the issuer's uptime and solvency make it worth.

A perpetual claim on a company's compute is a perpetual claim on that company existing. No amount of onchain settlement fixes that.

Venice has burned about 42.8% of VVV supply. That tells you about token mechanics and nothing about the durability of the service underneath.

It's difficult for me to price that credit risk from the outside. I'm reasoning past the limit, same as I did in 2022.

Wrap-up

I've argued separately that most production tokens will flow through small specialized models.

If that's right, the marginal unit of inference commoditizes hard.

Commoditized things with volatile prices and industrial buyers develop a forward curve. Compute already trades as a spot good.

The instruments come next. They'll come from crypto rails first, because that's where the settlement layer already exists.

I'm not making a call on any token here. I'm making a call on the category – buying and selling compute forward becomes normal treasury work for companies running AI at scale, and sooner than procurement is ready for.

Written by

Adam Roozen

Strategic Advisor. AI Strategy, Digital Commerce, Technology Transformation

Nearly 30 years of operating experience · Walmart · Sam's Club · Echidna

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